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You are here: Home > Services > County Development Board > County Delelopment Plan > Population and Settlement

Population and Settlement

• North Tipperary in Context
• Current & Projected Population
• Settlement Pattern
• Settlement Strategy
• Preferred Settlement Strategy
• Existing Plans
• Social Inclusion & Universal Access

3.2 Current and Projected Population

The Census 2002 shows that population figures for Ireland (in general) have increased dramatically over the past 5 to 10 years. The rate of population growth was the highest experienced since the 1970s. The average annual rate of population increase from 1996 to 2002 was 1.3% compared with 0.6% for the 1991-1996 period and 1.5% between 1971 and 1979.

The 2002 total for the population of the State is 3,917,336 persons, compared with 3,626,087 persons in 1996, representing an increase of 291,249 persons or 8% in six years.

The 2002 total for the population of the County is 61,068 persons. This is a 5.3% increase from the 1996 Census figure. The County therefore accounts for 17.96% of the mid-west regional population and 1.55% of the national population (See Figures 3.1 and 3.2).

Figure 3.1: Mid-west Region v State 8%

Figure 3.2: North Tipperary v M.W Region 17.96%

Table 3.1 indicates the change in population for the County from 1986 to 2002.

Table 3.1: County Population at Census Periods 1986 - 2002
Year	Population	% Change
1986	59,522	+0.1
1991	57,854	-1.02
1996	58,021	+0.3
2002	61,068	+5.3

Figure 3.3 provides a graphic presentation of the change in population of the County since 1986.

Figure 3.3: Change in County Population over Census Periods 1986 - 2002

This growth of 5.3% since the last Census in 1996 is slightly lower than the regional average of 7.2%, and the national figure of 8%, as shown in Figure 3.4.

Figure 3.4: % Growth in Population from 1996-2002 for the County, Region and State

This overall growth pattern is significant - the 1998 County Development Plan projected a modest increase in population to 59,000 or 1.68%. The unprecedented performance of the national economy over the last Plan period resulted in an unforeseen upswing in financial, social and development trends. This resulted in an actual population growth of 5.3%, demonstrating how difficult it is to accurately predict population change over a 6-year period.

Figure 3.5 shows the actual population change as opposed to the projection carried out in 1996. It is important to show this difference in order to illustrate just how unforeseen the effects of the "Celtic Tiger" economy were, merely six years ago. For the purposes of this chart, the "Upper Population Level" figures of the 1996 projection were used.

Figure 3.5

Table 3.2 shows the changes in population in urban and rural areas between 1991 and 2002. It demonstrates that there is a significant rise in rural population from 32,088 in 1996 to 36,614 in 2002. Over 60% of the population of the County now live in rural areas.

Table 3.2 Population  Distribution in North Tipperary
Settlement	'91	%	'96	%	'02	%
Thurles U.D.C	6687	11.6	6603	11.38	6852	11.23
Environs of Thurles	268	0.46	336	0.58	573	0.94
Nenagh U.D.	5525	9.55	5645	9.73	6121	10.03
Environs of Nenagh	300	0.52	268	0.46	333	0.55
Roscrea	4231	7.31	4170	7.19	4578	7.50
Templemore U.D.	2188	3.78	2115	3.65	2159	3.54
Environs of Templemore	137	0.24	129	0.22	111	0.18
Total Towns	18631	32.2	19137	32.98	15132	24.80
Total Town Environs	705	1.22	733	1.26	1017	1.67
Total Small Settlements*	5852	10.1	6063	10.45	8247	13.52
Settlement Total	25188	43.5	25933	44.70	24396	39.99
Rural Total	32666	56.5	32088	55.30	36614	60.01
North Tipperary Total	57854		58021		61010	5.3

3.2.1 Local Population Trends

Information on population changes is important in order to be able to plan for the amount of land needed for housing, industry and infrastructure. It is also important to see where growth has taken place and how some areas have changed in relation to others. "Problem areas" or areas of population decline can be identified, and measures can be taken to readdress decline and lack of growth.

A disturbing trend has emerged in that since 1991 certain key settlement areas in the County have experienced declining populations, including the East Urban area of Nenagh, and some of the larger rural settlements such as Ballingarry, Cloghjordan, Ballycahill, Littleton, Templederry and Upperchurch. Some of the rural areas in the County have also suffered steady decline since 1991, including the DEDs of Ballycahill, Ballymurreen, Dolla, Foilnamon, Graigue, Glenkeen, Redwood, Lackagh, Templederry, Moyaliff and Upperchurch. Figure 3.6 shows the DEDs that experienced population decline between 1996-2002, while Figure 3.7 shows DEDs in decline in the period 1991-1996.

Figure 3.6

Figure 3.7

Between 1996 and 2002, the western area of the County experienced significant increase in population growth with an average increase of 15.5%, with the village of Ballina experiencing a growth rate of 98.2%.

3.2.2 Household Size

The performance of the national economy over recent years has also had an impact on the average household size. With higher incomes and changing lifestyles, many more people are choosing to live alone or in smaller family units.

Between 1986 and 1996 the average household size decreased from 3.59 to 3.20 in North Tipperary, at an average annual rate of decline of 0.04. The 1996 County figure was higher than the national household size of 3.04 which was again higher than the European average of 2.63. The North Tipperary County Housing Strategy 2001 assumed that households will continue to decrease in size leading to an average household size of 2.8 by 2006. This can have a profound impact on the development of the County, as smaller household sizes mean greater demand for housing.

Table 3.3 Household Formations Based on CSO Population Statistics

Year	Natural Increase In Population	Rate of Natural Increase	Natural Increase	Average Household Size	Total Households	Additional Households
1996	58021	8.57	497	3.20	18132
1997	58518	8.57	501	3.15	18577	446
1998	59019	8.57	506	3.10	19038	461
1999	59525	8.57	510	3.05	19516	478
2000	60035	8.57	514	3.00	20012	495
2001	60549	8.57	519	2.95	20525	513
2002	61010	8.57	523	2.90	21038	513
2003	61068	8.57	527	2.88	21366	328
2004	62060	8.57	532	2.86	21699	334
2005	62592	8.57	536	2.84	22039	340
2006	63128	8.57	541	2.82	22386	347
2007	63669	8.57	546	2.8	22739	353
2008	64215	8.57	550	2.78	23099	360
2009	64765	8.57	555	2.76	23466	367

3.2.3 Population Forecast

Forecasting population accurately is a difficult undertaking. The 1998 Development Plan predicted a marginal increase in population of between 3.5 and 3.9 between 1998 and 2003, but what actually occurred was a 5.3% increase, as the national economy prospered. Demographic forecasts are however generally seen as guidelines for future population growth rather than accurate predictions.

The economy is still performing well, while not at such an accelerated rate as over the last Plan period. It is, however, reasonable to assume though that development will continue to take place, but perhaps at a slightly higher rate over the next Plan period and beyond.

Table 3.3 sets out a realistic scenario of household formations and population growth over the Plan period - based on the census population 2002 and current economic climate. It projects an annual increase of 0.84% and an increase of 6.05% population growth over the Plan period (Table 3.4).

Table 3.4: Forecast Population Increase
Year	Population	% Change
1996 Census	58,021	+0.3
2002 Census	61,068	+5.3
2009 Estimate	64,765	+6.05
2015 Estimate	68,171	+5.2

3.2.4 Household Forecast

In order to derive housing numbers required over the Plan period it is necessary to factor in previous trends in household completions, current commitments and economic trends. A total of 1,919 commencement notices were received for rural houses between 1998 and 2002 compared with 2,119 permissions granted, showing that over 90% of permissions granted commenced (allowing for the fact that not all commencements are preceded by submission of a Commencement Notice). In the County at large, 5,256 houses were completed; while a further 6,239 houses were granted planning permission.

The County Housing Strategy 2001 compared the estimate of observed population increase (4,256) against estimate in natural increase (1,198). The Housing Strategy assumed that a significant rise in house completions would lead to a similar rise in population. However, because of household subdivision and low level of in-migration the level of population increase was lower than house completions would suggest. It can be concluded from the above analysis that future households will be in line with the projections as set out in the Housing Strategy of 851 units per year, but that this will lead to an overall increase in population of 6.02% over the Plan period.

 

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